Homebuilding Activity Stronger Than Forecast

Homebuilding Activity Stronger Than Forecast After a surprisingly good report in October, with all three measures of residential construction activity rising significantly, analysts were expecting a little give back in November. That happened with both building permits and construction completions, but housing starts outpaced even analysts' most optimistic forecasts. The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development report that starts in November rose 3.3 percent from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. Analysts polled by Econoday has been looking for a range of 1,191,000 to 1,290,000, with a consensus of 1,240,000. The gain however, got an assist from a downgrade in the October number, from 1,290,000 to 1,256,000. The November increase put starts 12.9 percent above their pace a year earlier. Single-family starts were estimated at an annual rate of 930,000, a 5.3 percent increase from the revised (from 877,000) October figure of 883,000 and 13.0 percent higher than the prior November number. Starts in buildings with five or more units were at a rate of 359,000, an 0.8 percent and a 11.1 percent gain on a monthly and an annual basis. On a non-adjusted basis there were 98,400 residential units started in November, down from 109,000 in November. Single-family starts declined from 75,200 to 67,900. Permits for residential construction declined from October by 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000 units, remaining 3.4 percent ahead of the same month in 2016. The October rate was revised to 1,316,000 from the original estimate of 1,297,000. Analysts had expected permits to be at a rate of 1,250,000 to 1,310,000 with a consensus of 1,270,000. Single family permits were at a rate of 862,000, an uptick of 1.4 percent from the October number which was revised upward from 839,000 to 850,000. The November rate was 9.7 percent higher than a year earlier. Multi-family permits were issued at a 395,000 units rate, down 8.8 percent and 7.7 percent from the two earlier periods. On a non-adjusted basis there were 96,500 permits issued, 61,700 for singlefamily units. In October the respective numbers were 114,000 and 70,900.